1) Not sure about that. The lack of a stable government can also lead to a stagnant economy (Italy)

2) Yes this.

]]>I’m not sure I believe that argument (it’s too simplistic), and even if I did, that’d imply that (e.g.) the Greens were seeing the same benefit from protest voting, and really would be unrepresented once everyone mainstreamed-up.

On the other hand, democracy could be argued to be about the art of the compromise — pissing off the smallest number of people — and that coalition governments are the right way to encourage that, even if — by whatever measure — they’re less stable.

Two random thoughts: (1) stable ~= stagnation; (2) we’re simply seeing a chaotic system with two attractors.

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]]>One of our data scientists implemented our approach internally but we didn’t publish results or approach. A quick google for Markov Chain Analysis should turn up some interesting papers.

Good luck. I’d be interested in knowing how this works for you.

Dom

]]>Great article. I am really interested in testing a Bayesian probability attribution model, are there any websites or books you would recommend reading to help build one?

Many thanks,

Jamie